DESVENTURAS DE UM AVENTUREIRO NA CASA BRANCA

AINDA HÁ TEMPO PARA REZAR, MAS NÃO RESOLVE

O assassinato deliberado de uma das maiores lideranças do regime iraniano foi a iniciativa mais desastrosa do aventureiro mais perigoso jamais eleito para liderar os EUA. E agora, José?

O QUE JÁ SE SABE

A vítima do atentado, general Soleimani, já estava na lista de alvos prioritários para eventual execução, dependendo de autorização pessoal do Presidente americano, desde Bush filho, que a descartou, e de Obama, que tampouco a adotou. No caso de tomadas de decisão muito controversas, entretanto, é usual serem apresentadas ao Presidente opções extremadas, com probabilidade insignificante ou inexistente de serem aprovadas, mas com o fito de facilitar a adoção de alternativas igualmente controversas e arriscadas, mas menos extremas.

A mais alta assessoria de inteligência, segurança e defesa de Trump estava dividida sobre a opção Soleimani. Conselheiros políticos, como o vice Mike Pence e o secretário de Estado Mike Pompeo, defendiam a tese de que a morte do líder supostamente mais poderoso do regime iraniano, abaixo apenas do Aiatolá Kamenei, eliminaria definitivamente a ameaça xiita aos interesses americanos e mundiais, e colocaria o regime iraniano de joelhos, tal como prometido por Trump desde sua campanha, e a um custo tolerável. Segundo um relatório do Foreign Policy, Pompeo vinha pressionando Trump há meses para autorizar a execução de Soleimani. Os que se opunham alertavam sobre os custos imprevisíveis da operação e a alta probabilidade de sair do controle dos americanos. As diversas fontes citam uma boa meia-dúzia de avaliações divergentes de altos funcionários das agência envolvidas, inclusive da casa Branca, sobre os riscos vitais dessa escalada americana.  

As consequência consideradas altamente prováveis pelos que se opunham à execução de Soleimani já estão ocorrendo em diferentes países, mas não é possível prever quando, onde e como irão se desencadear daqui por diante.

O QUE SE PODE PREVER

A decisão de Trump entregou a decisão ao adversário, o regime iraniano. Cabe agora somente ao Irã decidir se haverá guerra, que tipo de guerra irá se desencadear, onde e quando. Isto porque, a menos de desencadear imediatamente uma guerra – convencional ou não – nada resta aos EUA além da escalada retórica que, senão colher frutos imediatos, perde a credibilidade.

O regime iraniano também não tem controle total sobre seu próprio poder de decisão. Embora a elite no poder esteja no momento unida contra os EUA, sua divisão interna entre moderados e extremistas vai continuar impedindo uma decisão consensual. A sociedade também se encontra dividida e será a parte mais atingida por uma escalada de sanções econômicas e militares. Assim sendo, não há como prever os próximos passos de ambas as partes.

Um ex-comandante geral americano no Oriente Médio resumiu assim a situação estratégica: hoje não sabemos quais são os sinais vermelhos a não serem ultrapassados na escalada contra o Irã, nem eles sabem quais são os sinais vermelhos dos EUA. Assim sendo, é muito fácil perder o controle da situação.

POR QUE TRUMP PROVOCOU ESSE DESASTRE IMINENTE?

Minha hipótese, dentro do pressuposto de que um evento dessa natureza não pode ser explicado por uma só variável, é de que o único fator que pode explicar essa decisão e para o qual, a maioria dos fatores converge, é de que se trata de uma decisão eleitoral. Eis alguns dos fatores que concorrem para isso: sob o risco imediato de uma confrontação militar, a oposição não tem condições para limitar efetivamente as iniciativas presidenciais no campo da defesa; levar o presidente para um julgamento político no Senado, nem pensar, a não ser por meio de uma ação ilegal da maioria republicana; os titubeios de Trump, seus recuos diante de conflitos internacionais, sua incapacidade para concluir algum acordo significativo, vem criando para ele uma reputação de frouxo e de um comandante em chefe inconfiável.

Além disso, Trump já mostrou que acredita que uma guerra, e especificamente uma guerra contra o Irã, é uma condição suficiente para ser reeleito. Em duas ocasiões ele apostou publicamente que Obama entraria em guerra contra o Irã como única solução para garantir sua reeleição em 2012: uma vez, porque Obama seria fraco para endurecer contra o regime iraniano e, outra vez, porque não teria capacidade para negociar. Não por acaso, essas duas fraquezas atribuídas por Trump a Obama são exatamente o que vozes, dentro inclusive do próprio Partido Republicano, hoje atribuem a Trump.

E AGORA?

Se alguém disser que pode prever os próximos desenvolvimentos, está mentindo. Se alguém disser que sabe quais serão os efeitos desta crise e quais serão suas consequências. Assim sendo, para quem acredita, só resta rezar.

#TrumpDesastroso #EUAxIrã

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